The Future of Algorithmic Warfare: Fragmented Development
The promise of AI/ML revolutionizing warfare clashes with the historical record of stalled progress in algorithmic warfare. The extent to which large military organizations, like the U.S. armed services, can effectively embrace change remains uncertain. A new book, "Information in War: Military Innovation, Battle Networks, and the Future of Artificial Intelligence" explores military organizations' struggles to adapt to new information technologies like AI/ML. It presents four scenarios about the prospects of AI/ML in the U.S. military, highlighting the potential hindrances of bureaucracy and the resistance to structural change. While there are reasons for optimism, true success depends on the military's ability to create new command structures and formations rather than simply integrating new technology into existing frameworks. War on the Rocks published an excerpt from the book.
In the year 2040, the story paints a picture of war conducted by small groups supported by swarms of unmanned systems and analysts, with data as the new key terrain. Despite the survival of legacy commands, the military's slow structural changes may hinder fully harnessing the potential of AI/ML. The scenario emphasizes the importance of building new command and control constructs and formations to achieve real success in AI/ML integration, as opposed to simply adding new technology to old bureaucratic systems.