The EU just released a roadmap to defend Europe. Will member states follow it?
The US-led talks aiming to end the war in Ukraine and efforts by France and Britain to stand up a “reassurance force” to provide a security guarantee to Kyiv have dominated headlines in the past few weeks. So it would have been easy to overlook the March 19 publication of the European Commission’s Joint White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030. But this White Paper bears attention, as it marks a significant milestone in the European Union’s (EU’s) ongoing efforts to strengthen its security.
In December, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen assigned Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, and Andrius Kubilius, the first-ever commissioner for defense and space, to produce this document. The resulting text presents a roadmap for Europe to build up its defense capabilities in response to growing external security threats, including the possibility of Russian military aggression against EU territory. The White Paper also represents a direct reaction and message to the ongoing changes in Washington’s approach to European security under US President Donald Trump.
The White Paper adopts a five-year outlook, which is also the timeframe in which several European intelligence agencies have estimated Moscow would require to reconstitute its military capabilities such that it could conduct a large-scale attack on a NATO country. In the event of a cease-fire or peace agreement with Ukraine, Russia would almost certainly seek to accelerate its rearmament. Meanwhile, Europe faces uncertainty regarding the extent of continued US security assistance given Washington’s rapidly shifting foreign policy stances and priorities.