Updating Augustine’s Law: Fighter Aircraft Cost Growth in the Age of AI and Autonomy
In 1979, Department of Defense (DOD) official Norman Augustine conducted a legendary study of U.S. fighter aircraft cost growth over time. He found that the unit cost of new-generation fighter aircraft has increased, on average, roughly an order of magnitude every 20 years since 1910. Augustine observed, “In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. The aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy [three and a half] days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.”
Though presented with his characteristic wit, Augustine’s data was entirely serious. His warning took on something of a mythic status in the Pentagon and was branded “Augustine’s Law.” In 2010, The Economist published an article updating the study with the latest fighter aircraft price data, finding the cost growth predicted by Augustine’s Law had continued in the three decades after his initial publication.