Cratering Effects: Chinese Missile Threats to US Air Bases in the Indo-Pacific
The U.S. Air Force — with its ability to respond where and when needed to aggression by adversaries — has long underwritten U.S. extended deterrence commitments. Today, however, that capability is at risk. For the last three decades, China has built a large and modern missile arsenal capable of attacking the runways needed for the effective projection of American airpower in the region.
This report finds that Chinese missiles attacks could close the runways and taxiways at U.S. forward air bases in Japan, Guam, and other Pacific locations in the first critical days — and even weeks — of a war between the United States and China. No combination of U.S. countermeasures — including the greater dispersal of aircraft in the region, improved runway repair capabilities, and more robust missile defenses — is likely to solve the problem.