The Future of Algorithmic Warfare Part II: Wild Goose Chases
The authors of the forthcoming book "Information in War: Military Innovation, Battle Networks, and the Future of Artificial Intelligence" contemplate the possibility of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) failing to bring substantial changes to the national security realm. They highlight the prevailing discourse's focus on technological revolution, neglecting the potential for numerous uneven experiments leading to failure. The article explores scenarios where bureaucracy, resistance to change, and adherence to prevailing warfare ideas hinder the transformative potential of AI/ML, drawing parallels to historical cases like French radar experiments. The authors emphasize the need to engage in a more robust dialogue about the interplay between technology, people, bureaucracy, and knowledge networks in military innovation.
In the year 2040, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff commutes to the Pentagon, reflecting on the slow progress AI/ML has made in reshaping military operations. Despite investments and experiments, old ideas and paradigms about warfare persist, preventing transformative changes. The article discusses scenarios based on historical examples and urges the military to expand discourse beyond its ranks, considering civilian perspectives and interdisciplinary collaboration to foster genuine innovation and challenge entrenched concepts in the pursuit of effective AI/ML integration. The authors suggest that success requires more than mere optimization of existing tactics; it necessitates fresh concepts that reshape fundamental doctrines.